Checking in on 20 Crypto Personalities Predictions for 2021
Last December, Soona Amhaz, founder of Volt Capital, compiled a great list of predictions by some of the crypto industry’s most prominent personalities about what would go down in 2021.
Similar to last month’s review of Messari’s Crypto Theses for the year. We’ll be using the Red, Amber, Green framework to see how their doing.
- Green – On Track and/or already true
- Amber – Still a chance
- Red – Not Looking Good
Note, predictions are summarized below. Some predictions excluded because I didn’t feel I could sufficiently quantify them. I’d encourage you to check out the list in full over at 1729.com.
1. Alok Vasudev, Standard Crypto
- Bitcoin deepens its institutional adoption
- Ethereum begins its institutional phase
- Early signs of traction in “stablecoin-native” financial apps/services
- We will see at least one centralized company launch a decentralized, user-owned/operated crypto-network where the crypto-network has legitimate checks and balances over the company’s actions.
Status – Green
- Institutional adoption continues to accelerate
- Futures trading of ETH is sign of institutional demand
- Compound launching 4% USDC targeted at fintechs
- TBD
2. Balaji Srinivasan, Angel Investor
In 2021 the real battle of the next decade begins: BTC vs MMT
Status – Amber
I think the thesis remains intact. In the US, which has appeared to be on the leading edge of MMT implementation amongst the world’s economies. Biden’s fiscal objectives have recently hit some road blocks to adoption. Signaling MMT adoption maybe delayed versus how it appeared when he was inaugurated.
3. Meltem Demirors, CoinShares
BTC price target of $100,000.
Status – Amber
A 3x move in bitcoin over a 6 month horizon is possible but not assured.
4. Alexis Gauba, Opyn
We will continue to see AMM growth with more instrument specific AMMs.
Status – Green
5. Stacie Waleyko, Casa
Increased usage on the Lightning network.
Status – Green
6. Matt Corallo, Square Crypto
Western countries will continue their multi-lateral regulatory attacks on free movement of crypto, especially as it relates to coins moving into or out of exchanges.
Status – Green
UK’s crackdown on Binance is the latest example.
7. Linda Xie, Scalar Capital
We’ll see significant experimentation in the personal/social token space with a number of prominent creators issuing their own tokens.
Status – Green
Gary Vee is the latest example of prominent creators getting into the social token space.
8. Matthew Walsh, Castle Island Ventures
Several cryptoasset infrastructure companies will go public via traditional IPOs and SPACs.
Status – Green
Circle went public via SPAC this week. While Bakkt and Bitfury intend to later this year.
9. Sunayna Tuteja, TD Ameritrade
The career risk inverts — no longer kosher for leaders and decision makers to be apathetic about bitcoin and blockchain.
Status – Green
Banks are increasingly recognizing its critical to offer solutions to clients who want exposure to cryptoassets. The two largest custodians in the world, State Street and BNY Mellon, have both aggressively expanded their digital asset product capabilities this year.
10. Lauren Stephanian, Pantera Capital
BTC will continue to dominate as more institutions/corporations invest/get involved.
Status – Amber
11. Joey Krug, Pantera Capital
We’ll see $100k BTC, $2k ETH, and a Coinbase IPO. Black swan perhaps one of the Grayscale products trades at a discount in 2nd half of 2021, but that’s a much smaller chance than the first three.
Status – Amber
3 out of 4 ain’t bad. Underestimated the speed at which the GBTC premium would evaporate and the pace of bitcoin’s ascent to 100k.
12. Alex Adelman, Lolli
Several publicly traded companies, including Tesla, will add bitcoin to their balance sheet.
Status – Green
Still counts even when Elon backtracks for PR reasons.
13. Alexander Svanevik, Nansen
2021 is the year DeFi meets fintech. Crypto companies like Circle, Wyre, and Multis will build bridges from DeFi to legacy finance via fiat integrations.
Status – Green
Seems a bit like cheating given Circle’s API released in 2020 was a powerful first step down this road.
14. Kinjal Shah, Blockchain Capital
The crypto industry will have a record year of consolidation as the M&A market heats up and fintech / banks scoop up crypto companies.
Status – Green
2021 is on track to surpass 2020 by value and activity. Historically, exchanges have accounted for more than 40% of activity and 60% of value. Flush with cash from fundraising and going public in some instances ala Coinbase. Exchanges deal activity has already accelerated in 2021.
15. Nic Carter, Castle Island Ventures
The total supply of stablecoins exceeds $50b.
Status – Green
Tether alone has surpassed this mark and USDC isn’t far behind.
16. Tomiwa Lasebikan, BuyCoins
There will be at least a momentary market cap flippening between a smart contract-focused blockchain and ethereum.
Status – Amber
Ethereum’s value is 6x that of Cardano. The 2nd most valuable layer 1 focused smart-contract platform. Given the successful release of Binance Smart Chain. If we want to toss BNB into the comparison. ETH still exceeds its value by 5x.
17. Yele Bademosi, Bundle Africa
By the end of 2021, most African fintechs will act as on-ramps for crypto and most crypto-native companies will offer more traditional fintech features leading to a tremendous increase in the number of African crypto users.
Status – Green
For example the largest market for Paxful’s various services is Africa.
18. Ian Lee, IDEO CoLab Ventures
We will also see the beginnings of the next big breakout area of crypto: Crypto Social, that enables open social graphs.
Status – Amber
While I support the sentiment. Benedict Evans has provided thoughtful commentary on the challenges of making data transfer across social networks meaningful.
19. Su Zhu, Three Arrows Capital
DeFi TVL will pierce through $100B.
Status – Amber
Almost made it in May. There’s still time for a 2x move before year end.
20. Imran Khan, Volt Capital
With recent regulatory hurdles in the US, we’ll see two worlds emerge in DeFi. The “US first world” will be semi-regulated offerings that align with regulations but are slow to adopt new technologies. Meanwhile, the “Asia first world” will be untethered from regulation and free to spearhead new DeFi concepts and primitives.
Status – Amber
While no one would characterize the regulatory environment in the US as warm and fuzzy. It’s arguably been a better year than the three largest players in East Asia.
- China
- Japan
- South Korea
Given their regulatory activity since the beginning of the year.
The US also benefits from its federally oriented politics. I.E. while the federal government may move to constrain crypto activities, states like Wyoming can simultaneously taking action to unleash them.
Summary
When asked to make predictions prominent industry players appear to have done quite well in accurately predicting their highest conviction outlooks.
Steve Miller
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